However, this will increase electricity costs, reduce oil prices and also accelerate the development of low-carbon fuels, thus keeping the ICE competitive. If the world finally manages to implement proper technology-neutral climate policies, CO2 intensity of electricity will fall faster. Beyond 2040, electricity carbon intensity will continue declining, but biofuels and synfuels will also reduce the carbon intensity of ICE fuels. Given that the latest IEA New Policies scenario projects an average global electricity carbon intensity of 0.42 kg/kWh by 2040 (currently 0.56 kg/kWh), it is clear that BEVs again don’t offer any fundamental advantage relative to efficient ICE cars.

Future battery embodied CO2 is assumed as 50 kg/kWh and calculated on a 60 kWh battery pack lasting 250000 miles. The graph below calculates the electricity CO2 intensity required by BEVs to emit less CO2 than ICE cars for the same three efficiency advantages displayed above. In addition, the BEV battery leads to higher embodied CO2 of about 100 kg/kWh. The CO2 emissions of BEVs relative to ICEs depends primarily on the electricity mix that fuels the BEV. In this case, from an overall global perspective, fueling efficient ICEs can be significantly cheaper than fueling BEVs. It is clear that BEVs enjoy no obvious fuel cost advantage under normal oil prices of $30-60/barrel.Īrguably, the comparison should rather be made to average oil production costs ($20-30/barrel), given that the difference between market prices and production costs funds a large chunk of public spending in many countries. The following graph was created to show the electricity price where BEV fuel costs reach parity with ICE fuel costs for a range of BEV efficiency advantages. A 10% fuel cost advantage one way or the other will therefore translate to a negligible 1% ownership cost differential.Īs discussed in a previous article, ICE and BEV drivetrains will probably end up with efficiencies around 50% and 80% (including charging losses) respectively in the long run. Besides, at these efficiency levels, fuel costs are typically about 10% of total car ownership costs. If electricity was taxed the same as gasoline (to pay for things like road maintenance), fuel costs would be essentially identical. Obviously, these highly efficient ICE cars present the best benchmark for electric cars, given that they are also promoted as eco-friendly solutions with low fuel costs.įor example, comparing the fuel costs for the Hyundai Ioniq hybrid and electric versions shows only a small advantage for the electric car (which is $5000 more expensive with a battery pack of only 28 kWh). They should therefore be compared to ICE cars that are built for maximum efficiency such as the Toyota Prius and the Hyundai Ioniq (both pushing 60 mpg). Electric vehicles are built for maximum efficiency so that they can get more range out of a given battery pack. Yes, the electric motor is inherently much more efficient than the internal combustion engine (ICE), but the generation and distribution of electricity is also much more expensive than the production and distribution of gasoline.Īnd no, the fuel costs of electric vehicles should not be compared to the woeful American average fuel economy of 25 mpg. One of the primary arguments for electric vehicles is lower fuel costs. This article will outline the most important arguments in this thesis. Money spent on electric car technology-forcing is therefore, in my opinion, a bad investment at a time when we really cannot afford bad energy investments. The only point I wish to make is that their potential for achieving the rapid and economical emissions cuts the world so badly needs is very low. I should establish right up front that I do not dispute that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will see impressive growth over coming years.

However, some simple objective analysis quickly shows that there is limited substance behind all the hype. Even The Economist recently got in on the act. As a result, notes Cloete, ICE vehicles will remain highly competitive with battery electric vehicles (BEVs).Įlectric car mania is sweeping the globe and people are predicting the imminent death of the internal combustion engine (ICE) with increasing vigor. CO2 and tailpipe emission benefits are also insignificant relative to efficient ICEs. Electric cars offer no clear fuel cost savings relative to efficient internal combustion engine (ICE) options, writes independent researcher Schalk Cloete.

Gas powered post driver comparison